قُدّرت الجائزة الكبرى في البداية بمبلغ 1,28 مليار دولار

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Experts in space and astronomy said that the debris of the uncontrolled Chinese rocket came very close to entering the Earth’s atmosphere, amid predictions about where it will fall.

The New York Times said that China’s lack of ground-guided missile guidance technology leaves the disturbing possibility that missile debris could fall into a populated area, potentially causing property damage, injury and even death.

When will the missile fall?

Aerospace Corporation, a non-profit organization that conducts research and analysis, including tracking space debris, expects the rocket to begin returning to Earth, this Saturday, at 2:16 p.m. (US Eastern time) over the Indian Ocean.

But the uncertainty remains high, with the accuracy difference here being more than five hours, and because the debris takes only 1.5 hours to orbit the Earth, the point of return can still be undetermined and could be at any point on the planet.

While Chinese space agencies have not provided public data on the orbital trajectory of the rocket’s body, they do not predict where and when it will return again.

What is the danger?

If you are above 41.5 degrees north latitude or in Antarctica or the southern tip of South America below 41.5 degrees south latitude, you are completely safe, according to the American newspaper.

Nor does the missile pass over Europe or much of North Africa.

Even if you live somewhere where the missile passes, there is no sure “chance” that a piece of missile debris will fall on you, but the chances of it falling on someone are still there.

A new Chinese missile is out of control and is falling towards the ground… and Washington is watching its path

The remains of a Chinese missile are expected to fall to Earth next week, according to the US Space Command, which has been tracking its path since the beginning of its return.

“This is a real concern,” said Ted Muelhaupt, a space debris expert at the Aerospace Corporation. “The Chinese shouldn’t be doing this.”

But he returned and added: “This is not a cause for panic. No one should walk around wearing a helmet.”

It is difficult to estimate the amount of risk a missile poses because the details of its design are unknown and it is they that determine the amount of debris that may be produced when it re-enters the Earth.

China’s space agencies did not provide any details of the case or their risk assessments.

“They may have bet that the risk of launches is not high enough to justify the costs of changing the way the missile operates,” the New York Times report says.

There were two more launches of Long March 5B. The first shell landed on villages in Ivory Coast in West Africa, causing some property damage but no casualties, and the second scattered into the Indian Ocean.

Where will it be located?

Muhammad Shawkat Odeh, supervisor of the satellite follow-up program, and director of the International Astronomy Center, said in his scientific explanation of the expected return of the wreckage of the Chinese missile today, that the first thing that happens when the satellites fall towards the earth, is their temperature rise when they interact with the atmosphere, so their temperature rises and begins to disintegrate ,

And when it reaches a height of 78 km, it explodes due to the intensity of pressure and heat and remains burning until a height of about 50-40 km.

During this trip, this specialist adds, “From 120 km up to 40 km, it is seen in the sky as a very bright and flaming body and consists of several luminous pieces.”

After that, the lights disappear and he continues his free fall to the ground and cannot be seen until he collides with it.

He adds, “Only 10% to 40% of the satellite’s primary mass reaches Earth because of what was previously mentioned.”

Nevertheless, due to the size of this large wreck, what remains of it may pose a danger to the place where it will fall exclusively, and since water constitutes 71% of the land area, the rate of its fall into the sea is 71% as well.

According to this specialist’s analysis, no one in the world can know exactly where and when this wreck will fall.

Odeh says that the prediction was tainted by many factors of inaccuracy for various reasons, including knowing the shape in which the debris will enter the atmosphere.

A map of the locations of the expected falls

The official website of the International Astronomy Center published a map that included the possibilities of falling debris, but he said that it is likely to change from time to time insignificant to change its path and change all the data related to it, its size, and its speed.

The map published by the center indicates the location of the expected debris fall, according to the forecasts of its satellite follow-up program.

A map showing the places where missile debris could fall within the margin of error

According to the center, all satellites orbiting the Earth in low orbits end up falling towards the Earth due to their constant friction with the atmosphere.

And about 70% of the fall of active satellites is uncontrolled, that is, it falls at an unspecified time and place.

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