The position of the Israeli occupation is affected by a number of internal and external determinants, the general environment and the data on which it bases its decisions and orientations, the most important of which is that it has a transitional government preparing for the fifth elections in less than 5 years.
The enemy committed a new assassination crime for one of the leaders of the resistance in the Gaza Strip, the martyr Mujahid Taysir al-Jabari, commander of the northern region in the Gaza Strip, in Saraya al-Quds, the military arm of the Islamic Jihad movement in Palestine, which prompted the al-Quds Brigades and the Palestinian resistance to respond to the crime by bombing Palestinian cities. Occupied Balsarik and mortar shells.
The assassination was preceded by the enemy’s claim that the Islamic Jihad movement is intent on carrying out a military operation against one of its targets at the Gaza border. The enemy informed the Egyptian mediator that he had information about the intentions of jihad to target its military forces in the Gaza envelope, either using Kornet anti-armor missiles or sniper weapons, in retaliation for its forces’ kidnapping of Sheikh Bassam al-Saadi, a prominent leader in the movement, and dragging him during the storming of Jenin camp.
The enemy forces mobilized their forces in the Gaza envelope, and imposed a curfew for settlers at a depth of 10 kilometers from the Gaza Strip, in order to avoid an expected target from the jihad. The Egyptian mediation moved, and the Jihad leadership presented its demands, namely the release of the captive Al-Saadi and the prisoner Khalil Awawda, who is on hunger strike in the prisons of the enemy. After 3 days, it appears that the enemy was monitoring a specific target, and targeted the martyr Al-Jabari, and a number of other field commanders of the Al-Quds Brigades, during raids that led to the martyrdom of women, a girl and the elderly. Al-Quds Brigades and the Palestinian resistance responded by bombing the occupied “Tel Aviv” and the settlements adjacent to the Gaza Strip.
The enemy’s position is affected by a number of internal and external determinants, the general environment and the data on which it bases its decisions and orientations. The enemy has a transitional government preparing for the fifth elections in less than 5 years, headed by Yair Lapid, who has no military experience, and is competing with his partner in the government, Benny Gantz, Minister The enemy’s war for the leadership of the center-left movement, and thus the competition for the seat of the next enemy government.
On the other hand, the opposition, led by Bibi Netanyahu and Ben Gvir, is preying on the positions of the Lapid government towards the resistance in Gaza, especially after its success in imposing a curfew on the settlements surrounding Gaza, for a period of 3 days without firing a single shot, which confirmed that the resistance is That deters the enemy and not the other way around. Although the enemy government did not want to heat up the Gaza front in light of the tension of the northern front with the Lebanese Hezbollah, against the backdrop of the party’s threats to the enemy if it attacked the Lebanese maritime borders, in addition to the enemy’s preoccupation with the Iranian nuclear file, and the US administration’s desire to reduce Escalation in the region, in order to devote itself to the global crisis and the war in Ukraine and the developments of the situation with China against the backdrop of the Taiwan crisis, the Gaza front usually imposes itself on the enemy’s arena, which classifies it as one of the least stable fronts, compared to all other fronts.
The enemy seeks to end the current round with minimal losses, a minimum of time, and a low level of fire, and it pushes, through the Egyptian mediator, to pressure the resistance in Gaza, specifically the Islamic Jihad movement, to accept the ceasefire, because it does not want to prolong the battle, as a result A number of reasons, chief among them, is the unstable internal environment on both the vertical and horizontal levels within the entity. The enemy’s home front does not tolerate a long war, and does not accept losses and sacrifices. The enemy community is looking for a decisive victory over the resistance in Gaza without losing soldiers or settlers, while the political and military levels of the enemy realize that the time of victory, instead of resolving battles, has been erased from the dictionary of the Zionist wars with the Palestinian and Lebanese resistance since the 2006 war on Lebanon, passing through With the Al-Furqan battles in 2008, the shale stones in 2012, the eaten storm in 2014, the Jerusalem sword in 2021, and the unity of the squares in 2022, which are now erupting, which will push Lapid-Gantz to exhaust all means to shorten the duration of the current confrontation.
Moreover, the leadership level of the enemy, inside and outside the government, does not enjoy a unified position towards external crises, and his dispute was not limited to internal politics only, but the partisan and personal outbidding also did not stop despite the presence of external threats, which was not prevalent in previous times. The internal situation is unified when exposed to an external threat.
The enemy fears that the length of the battle will backfire on it, which will double its failure in the strategy of deterrence towards the resistance, as it wants to preserve what it considers an image of victory by assassinating Jabari, while, with the continued fall of missiles inside the cities of occupied Palestine, especially the central and central cities, which is what is known as the region Gush Dan and its suburbs, which include the occupied Greater Tel Aviv area, the achievement of the assassination will vanish, and what appeared to be an image of victory will turn into a catastrophic failure and a loss of deterrence.
The enemy resorted to directing its first surprise military strike, through the assassination of Jabari, because it was not likely to remain under the threat of targeting, and the settlements of the envelope to remain under a curfew, which prompts it to end the current confrontation, so as not to enter into a long battle of attrition with the Palestinian resistance in Gaza. What the enemy fears most is that the confrontation with the resistance will turn into a battle of attrition that it will not be able to bear its consequences.
The enemy realizes that the resistance is following a strategy of economy of force in the current confrontation, in preparation for its prolongation, which has left it in a state of hesitation. While he seeks to shorten the duration of the confrontation, he fears that he will fall into the trap of attrition. If he seeks to carry out major military strikes and raise the intensity of the fire, he fears that the increase in the number of martyrs and losses will lead to a greater level of fire than the resistance, and the enemy may find himself in the midst of a long and violent battle for which he has not prepared.
Prolonging the military confrontation and the occupation’s aggression on Gaza will open up a number of threats, both internal and external, to the enemy. On the external level, it is feared that the battle will develop, and the resistance will raise the level of fire, which may lead to a multi-front war, in which all components of the resistance axis will participate. It is feared that all occupied Palestinian squares will move, as happened during the battle of the “Sword of Jerusalem” in May 2021, especially the Palestinians of the occupied interior. After the enemy was aiming for an objective achievement and removing a specific threat, it is being dragged into a long and comprehensive regional war, at a time when its society suffers unprecedented divisions, and the leadership of its army complains of the weakness of the fighting will of its soldiers.
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