Possible scenarios for the end of the "START 3" nuclear crisis

Possible scenarios for the end of the “START 3” nuclear crisis

global concerns

Amid global concerns about the repercussions of the decision on the issue of limiting the spread of nuclear weapons, Russia justified its decision by saying that "US sanctions after the Ukraine war are hampering the travel of Russian inspectors, and there are difficulties in issuing their visas, which their American counterparts do not face.".

On the line of the crisis, the United Nations called, on Wednesday, for Washington and Moscow to settle differences regarding inspection issues of military sites in the two countries.

Deputy Spokesperson for the UN Secretary-General Farhan Haq said: "It is the only remaining bilateral nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia. considered as "START 3" An important component of international peace and security, as well as of the nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime"according to the agency "RIA Novosti" Russian.

China also expressed its hope to continue without any hindrance the mutual inspections of military sites between Russia and America within the framework of that treaty, considering that it "Significant bilateral agreement to reduce nuclear arsenals".

As for the Kremlin, it says that it has informed the United States that time is running out for negotiations to replace a treaty "New start"And that if it expires in 2026 without replacing it, it will weaken global security.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also considered that "Because of Washington’s actions, Moscow decided to temporarily withdraw its facilities from inspections".

He added: "We received a notification from the American side about its intention to conduct inspections on our lands in the coming days and in the current circumstances and the war in Ukraine, and such a step seemed like an outright provocation.".

4 possible scenarios

According to Alexander Yermakov, an expert at the Russian Council for International Affairs, "The fate of the treaty will in many ways depend on Washington’s reaction".

Yermakov predicted 4 scenarios for the crisis, explaining: "The US administration may back down and stop applying the brakes, or take serious retaliatory steps, or take a sharp escalation, including stopping the exchange of data regarding missiles and strategic weapons.".

As for the fourth scenario, according to the newspaper "Izvestia" Russia, it is that the decision may lead to motivating the United States and its allies to allow the easing of the closure of the airspace and the granting of visas.

Commenting on this crisis, the military and strategic analyst, Brigadier General Tariq Hariri, said: "The Russian side announced that the suspension of inspections on air, naval and missile bases would be temporary, which is an intentional term and it is clear that the matter will not last."adding: "According to the Russian version, US sanctions on Moscow impede the travel of Russian inspectors".

Hariri explained to the site "Sky News Arabia"it’s a "Of course, the matter adds a new crisis to the chain of crises of the two countries, but it does not cancel the agreement, as it exists".

Hariri continued: "Suspending inspections may seem like a Russian tool to pressure Washington to lift sanctions, and it comes under the heading of political tensions between the two parties since the war on Ukraine, but the Russian side follows a policy "the ajar door"with the American side and did not terminate the agreement, it is using it as a card to ease sanctions".

For his part, Mohamed Mansour, a researcher at the Egyptian Center for Thought and Strategic Studies, said: "Moscow is still committed to all of the treaty, which is effectively the most important of the nuclear arms reduction treaties, and the only one still surviving in the post-Cold War era.".

And about the decision to cancel the field inspection as the most prominent items "START 3"between Mansour for the site "Sky News Arabia"that "What Moscow has frozen is the item on the mutual inspection of facilities that contain sites for storing nuclear warheads, weapons carriers or carrying nuclear munitions, as well as the data exchange mechanism to verify compliance with the provisions of the treaty, a step that seems logical in light of the current tension between Moscow and Washington against the background of the war. in Ukraine".

Regarding the repercussions of the move, Mansour said: "It will cast new shadows on the Western fear of Russian nuclear armament, in light of Moscow’s constant hint recently, the possibility of using nuclear weapons. "tactical" In Ukraine, this is in addition to Moscow’s recent introduction into service of new qualitative capabilities in the field of nuclear weapons, such as torpedoes "Poseidon"And the hypersonic missile "you will be".

Mansour concluded: "In general, this file will not witness dramatic developments in the foreseeable future, but it will remain on the table in the near future, given the expiration of the implementation period of the treaty by 2026, and with it it may not be possible to renew it again, at least under the current international circumstances.".

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According to military experts, START 3 is the most important among the nuclear arms reduction treaties, and the only one that is still standing in the post-Cold War era, and the decision raises the West’s fears of Russia’s nuclear armament, which always threatens to use “tactical” nuclear weapons in Ukraine.

And START 3, which is concerned with limiting nuclear weapons, was extended in 2021 for a period of 5 years between Russia and the United States of America, and it limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads, missiles and launchers that the two countries can deploy.

global concerns

Amid global concerns about the repercussions of the decision on the issue of limiting the spread of nuclear weapons, Russia justified its decision by saying that “US sanctions after the Ukraine war impede the travel of Russian inspectors, and there are difficulties in issuing their visas, which does not face their American counterparts.”

On the line of the crisis, the United Nations called, on Wednesday, for Washington and Moscow to settle differences regarding inspection issues of military sites in the two countries.

Deputy Spokesperson for the Secretary-General of the United Nations Farhan Haq said: “It is the only remaining bilateral agreement in the field of nuclear arms control between the United States and Russia. START 3 is an important component of international peace and security, as well as of the nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime,” according to the agency. Russian “Novosti”.

China also expressed its hope to continue without any hindrance the mutual inspections of military sites between Russia and America within the framework of that treaty, considering it an “important bilateral agreement to reduce the two arsenals of nuclear weapons.”

As for the Kremlin, he says that he has told the United States that time is running out for negotiations to replace the “New START” treaty, and that if it expires in 2026 without replacing it, this will weaken global security.

Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov also considered that “due to Washington’s actions, Moscow decided to temporarily withdraw its facilities from inspections.”

He added, “We received a notification from the American side about its intention to conduct inspections on our lands in the coming days and in the current circumstances and the war in Ukraine, and such a step seemed like an outright provocation.”

4 possible scenarios

And an expert at the Russian Council on International Affairs, Alexander Yermakov, believes that “the fate of the treaty will in many ways depend on Washington’s reaction.”

Yermakov predicted 4 scenarios for the crisis, explaining: “The US administration may back down and stop applying the brakes, or take serious retaliatory steps, or take a sharp escalation, including stopping the exchange of data regarding missiles and strategic weapons.”

As for the fourth scenario, as reported by the Russian newspaper “Izvestia”, it is that the decision may lead to motivating the United States and its allies to allow the easing of the closure of the airspace and the granting of visas.

Commenting on this crisis, the military and strategic analyst, Brigadier General Tariq Hariri, said, “The Russian side announced that the suspension of inspections on air, naval and missile bases will be temporary, and it is an intentional term and it becomes clear that the matter will not last,” adding: “According to the Russian version, US sanctions on Moscow impede the travel of Russian inspectors.

Al-Hariri explained to “Sky News Arabia”, “Of course, the matter adds a new crisis to the series of crises in the two countries, but it does not cancel the agreement, as it exists.”

Hariri continued, “The suspension of inspections may appear as a Russian tool to pressure Washington to lift the sanctions, and it comes under the heading of political quarrels between the two sides since the war on Ukraine, but the Russian side follows the policy of the “oblique door” with the US side and has not ended the agreement, as it uses it as a card to mitigate Penalties”.

For his part, Mohamed Mansour, a researcher at the Egyptian Center for Strategic Thought and Studies, said, “Moscow is still committed to everything that came in the treaty, which is actually the most important among the nuclear arms reduction treaties, and the only one that is still steadfast in the post-Cold War era.”

Regarding the decision to cancel the field inspection as one of the most prominent items of “START 3”, Mansour stated to “Sky News Arabia”, that “what Moscow has frozen is the item related to the mutual inspection of facilities that contain sites for storing nuclear warheads, weapons carriers or carrying nuclear munitions, as well as A data exchange mechanism to verify compliance with the terms of the treaty, a step that seems logical in light of the current tension between Moscow and Washington over the war in Ukraine.

Regarding the repercussions of the move, Mansour said: “It will cast new shadows on the Western fear of Russian nuclear armament, in light of Moscow’s constant threat recently, the possibility of using “tactical” nuclear weapons in Ukraine, in addition to Moscow’s recent introduction into service of new qualitative capabilities in the field of nuclear armament. , such as the torpedo “Poseidon”, and the hypersonic missile “Zircon”.

Mansour concluded, “In general, this file will not witness dramatic developments in the foreseeable future, but it will remain on the table in the near future, given the expiration of the implementation period of the treaty by 2026, and with it it may not be possible to renew it again, at least under the current international circumstances.”


#scenarios #START #nuclear #crisis

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