Iraq asks for the next step |  Gulf newspaper

Iraq asks for the next step | Gulf newspaper

Dr.. Muhammad Al-Saeed Idris

Before the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr, surprised everyone, whether they were his supporters or his competitors inside Iraq, with his important statement that appeared, last Tuesday, in which he called on his supporters to stop violence and withdraw outside the framework of the Iraqi parliament, everyone, inside and outside Iraq, was wondering : What is the next step in the explosive Iraqi crisis with all its risks, whether it is a step towards further escalation, or a window of hope towards detente? In those critical moments, no one could say anything in light of the severe obstruction facing the road to a solution, especially in light of the increasing polarization over how to safely reach the decision to “dissolve parliament and hold early general elections” on which everyone agrees, between the Sadrists’ demand that The judiciary issues a decision to dissolve Parliament, in order to prevent Parliament from convening to take the decision by itself, and between the demand of the competitors in the “coordination framework” which requires the dissolution of Parliament and the holding of early elections that Parliament convene and take this decision by itself.

Everyone breathed a sigh of relief after Muqtada al-Sadr’s statement. Immediately after this statement was issued, the Sadrists immediately began withdrawing, which prompted the government to cancel the curfew decision it had issued the day before, especially after the Sadrists’ withdrawal procedures from the vicinity of Parliament received a response from supporters of the “coordinating framework” gathered at the entrances and gates of the Green Zone, where they took the initiative They are also withdrawing.

Nevertheless, the question arises: What is the next step? And if the expectations are that this step, or steps, will be on the path of détente in light of the expectations of calm on all parties, as stated by Hadi Al-Amiri, head of the “Al-Fateh Alliance” one of the main components of the “coordinating framework”, and what was stated by Mustafa Al-Kazemi. Head of Government. Hadi al-Amiri praised Muqtada al-Sadr’s initiative, describing it as “courageous and worthy of appreciation and praise,” and that it “came at a critical moment in which enemies are betting on expanding the fighting between brothers.” As for Mustafa Al-Kazemi, Prime Minister, he took a step forward in his comment on Muqtada Al-Sadr’s initiative. After he considered that al-Sadr’s call “represents the highest levels of patriotism and keenness to preserve Iraqi blood,” he said in a tweet on “Twitter” that “Al-Sadr’s speech holds everyone a moral and patriotic responsibility to protect Iraq’s capabilities, stop the language of political and security escalation and initiate a quick and fruitful dialogue to resolve the issue.” crises.”

Will Al-Kazemi’s plan for the national dialogue gain support from the conflicting parties as the “hopefully next step”?

The question is important in light of many considerations, foremost among which is that everyone has come to realize that failure to reach a “consensual solution” will lead Iraq to a civil war, or at least, a bloody fight between the Sadrists and the “frameworkers”.

The second of these considerations is Muqtada al-Sadr’s “retirement” announcement last Monday, which was the spark of the fighting that erupted between the demonstrators on the two conflicting sides. Is retirement really a final decision, or was it a tactical step by which al-Sadr wanted to launch his reformist popular revolution and “burn all stages of escalation”?

The third of these considerations is the mechanism of dialogue in overcoming the crisis. Will al-Sadr impose what he wants by dissolving Parliament through the Federal Court, which postponed its decision to Tuesday, after al-Sadr gave it on Saturday (27/8/2022) 72 hours to issue the decision, and perhaps the postponement decision was What prompted him to issue the decision to retire, and then his supporters to stage their angry demonstrations and storm the Republican Palace?

The court did not meet on Tuesday (30/8/2022), as it was previously announced under the pretext of the ban imposed on all Iraqis on Monday. Can it meet and issue the decision that the Sadrists want to dissolve Parliament, or will it adhere to a previous decision of the Supreme Judicial Council in which he said, “No Do we have the power to dissolve Parliament?

The second option presented is the option of the “coordinating framework,” as stated by its most prominent leaders, former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and head of the “State of Law” coalition, in which he said that “there is no solution to the Iraqi parliament, no change to the country’s political system, and no elections except with the return of parliament.” to convene.” This option, which describes itself as “preserving the political and constitutional institutions,” puts Iraq in a dead end.

The fourth consideration relates to the limits of the required changes, or the “reform revolution” demanded by the Sadrists to build a new Iraq. Will it be one of the provisions of the national dialogue, or will it be postponed until after the dissolution of Parliament if this procedure is taken?

Important considerations complicate the hope that Iraq will overcome its current explosive crisis.

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